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The broad improvement of the Leading Economic Index and the stabilization of the Coincident Economic Index suggest that
the recession that began in the U.S. in December 2007 will likely ease in the near term, according to the
latest report from The Conference Board.
The LEI increased sharply for the second consecutive
month in May, increasing 1.2%. Seven of the ten indicators that make up the LEI posted increases. The index
rose 1.2% (a 2.4% annual rate) between November 2008 and May 2009, the first time the index has increased
over a six-month period since July 2007. The LEI currently stands at 100.2 (2004=100).
The CEI
continued to decrease in May, falling 0.2% amid further declines in industrial production and employment. However, two
of the four indicators showed improvement. ...
The broad improvement of the Leading Economic Index and the stabilization of the Coincident Economic Index suggest that
the recession that began in the U.S. in December 2007 will likely ease in the near term, according to
the latest report from The Conference Board.
The LEI increased sharply for the second consecutive
month in May, increasing 1.2%. Seven of the ten indicators that make up the LEI posted increases. The
index rose 1.2% (a 2.4% annual rate) between November 2008 and May 2009, the first time the index has
increased over a six-month period since July 2007. The LEI currently stands at 100.2 (2004=100).
The
CEI continued to decrease in May, falling 0.2% amid further declines in industrial production and employment. However, two
of the four indicators showed improvement. The six-month change in the index stands at -3.3% (a -6.4% annual rate) in the
period through May, down from -2.3% (a -4.5% annual rate) during the previous six months.
In May, the lagging
economic index for the U.S. fell by the same amount as the coincident economic index (-0.2%), and the
coincident-to-lagging ratio remained unchanged, as a result. Meanwhile, real GDP fell at a 5.7% annual
rate in the first quarter of the year, following a contraction of 6.3% in the fourth quarter of 2008.
None of the seven indicators showed advancement.
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