Conference Board Economic Indicators Point to 'Slow Recovery This Summer'
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.1% in February, following a 0.3% gain in January, and a 1.2% rise in December. The Coincident Economic Index also rose 0.1%, while the Lagging Economic Index increased 0.3%.
"The LEI for the U.S. has risen rapidly for almost a year now and it has reached its highest level. But, the sharp pick up in the LEI appears to be stabilizing," says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board. "As the economy moves from recovery into early phases of an expansion, the leading economic index points to moderately improving economic conditions in the near term. Correspondingly, the coincident economic index has been rising since July 2009, albeit slightly because of continued weakness in employment."
Four of the ten indicators that make up the LEI for the U.S. increased in February. The Conference Board LEI now stands at 107.6 (2004=100).
The six-month change in the index continued to moderate in February, to 4.4 percent (an 8.9 percent annual rate), down from 6.2 percent (a 12.8 percent annual rate) in the six-month period through September 2009. However, the strengths among the leading indicators have remained very widespread in recent months, with all ten components increasing over the past six months.
The Coincident Economic Index stands at 100.1 (2004=100). Employment continued
to fall, while the remaining three indicators posted small positive contributions for the month. During
the six-month period through February, the coincident economic index increased 0.6 percent, with three out of four components
advancing.
In February, the lagging economic index increased more than the CEI, and the coincident-to-lagging ratio decreased as a result. The LAG currently stands at 108.0. Meanwhile, real GDP expanded at a 5.9 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2009, following an increase of 2.2 percent annual rate in the third quarter.
"The indicators point to a slow recovery this summer. Going forward, the big question remains the strength of demand," says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board. "Without increased consumer demand, job growth will likely be minimal over the next few months."
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