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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) declined 0.1 percent in April, its first decline since March 2009. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) rose 0.3 percent and the Lagging Economic Index (LAG) rose 0.1 percent.
"These latest results suggest a recovery that will continue through the summer, although it could lose a little steam," said Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board.
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The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. now stands at 109.3 (2004=100). Building permits, supplier deliveries, real money supply and weekly initial unemployment insurance claims made the largest negative contributions to the index this month, more than offsetting the positive contributions from the interest rate spread, stock prices and the average workweek.
The leading economic index rose 4.4 percent (a 9.0 percent annual rate) between October 2009 and April 2010, moderately slower than the increase of 5.5 percent (about an 11.4 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. However, the strengths among the leading indicators have remained widespread in recent months.
All four indicators that make up The Conference Board CEI for the U.S. increased in April, bringing
the index to 100.6 (2004=100). Between October 2009 and April 2010, the coincident economic index increased 1.1 percent (about
a 2.2 percent annual rate), a reversal from the decline of 0.5 percent (-1.0 percent annual rate) during the previous six
months.
In April, the CEI rose more than the lagging economic index, and the coincident-to-lagging ratio increased, as a result. Meanwhile, real GDP expanded at a 3.2 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2010, following an increase of 5.6 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of last year.
The Conference Board LAG for the U.S. stands at 108.2 (2004=100) in April, with two of the seven components advancing. The ratio of manufacturing and trade inventories to sales and average prime rate charged by banks held steady in April.
Adam Fein's 2010 Wholesale Distribution Economic Reports now available.
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