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Jenel Stelton-Holtmeier

Could Another Economic Downturn Be a 'Self-Fulfilling Prophecy'?

By    Jenel  Stelton-Holtmeier 
August 11, 2011
More about:  Economic Trends
Uncertainty is keeping businesses from spending, which could result in further economic challenges.
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Standard & Poor's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating earlier this month appears to have sent already unstable financial markets into a tizzy. Never mind that the new AA+ rating is still an excellent rating or the fact that none of the other ratings agencies have followed suit.

The roller-coaster ride that the stock markets have been on over the past week highlights something about our economy: It's not always the facts that cause the problem.

In a statement released by the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI, economist Cliff Waldman addressed the recent volatility in global financial markets:

"Businesses have already been hoarding cash on their balance sheets instead of engaging in an aggressive program of equipment spending and expansion. The heightened uncertainty brought about by the global stock market rout, fears of a serious crisis in the Eurozone that could threaten the very existence of the Euro, and the virtual collapse of confidence in U.S. and Eurozone economic policy will only exacerbate the hibernation mentality in the business and household sectors in the U.S. and other industrialized countries."

Nicholas Bloom, an economics professor at Stanford University, told the Wall Street Journal that uncertainty is its own self-fulfilling prophecy. Response to the fear of another recession will cause consumers and companies to prepare for one ... and as a result, trigger the recession they most fear.

The U.S. economy is actually in a relatively strong position right now, if you look at the figures. We've recovered the losses from the last recession and actually began expanding earlier this year, according to Dan Meckstroth, chief economist for the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI. (Listen to more of Meckstroth's analysis in this month's Economic Update podcast.)

And yes, there are some areas that are a long way from being recovered (construction comes to mind) and yes, things could always be better. But a lot of what happens is riding on how we decide to respond.

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