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"The U.S. LEI has risen steadily for nearly a year, led by an improvement in financial markets and a manufacturing upturn," says Ataman Ozyildirim, an economist at The Conference Board. "Consumer expectations and housing permits have also contributed to these gains over this period, but to a lesser extent – especially in recent months."
Five of the ten indicators that make up the LEI for the U.S. increased in January. The Conference Board LEI now stands at 107.4 (2004=100).
The six-month change in the index has continued to moderate – to 4.8 percent (a 9.8 percent annual rate), down from 6.2 percent (about a 12.8 percent annual rate) in the six-month period through September 2009. However, the strengths among the leading indicators have remained widespread in recent months.
The Coincident Economic Index stands at 100.1 (2004=100), with gains in industrial production more than offsetting the small decrease in employment. Between July 2009 and January 2010, the CEI rose 0.6 percent (a 1.2 percent annual rate), a reversal from the decline of 2.4 percent (a -4.7 percent annual rate) during the previous six months.
In January, the lagging economic index continued to decrease, now standing at 108.0. With the coincident economic index rising slightly, the coincident-to-lagging ratio increased further. Meanwhile, real GDP expanded at a 5.7 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2009, following an increase of 2.2 percent annual rate in the third quarter.
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