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Home » The Conference Board Leading Economic Index Increases 1.1% in December

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index Increases 1.1% in December

By    MDM  Staff 
January 21, 2010
More about:  Economy
The LEI has improved for nine consecutive months.
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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. increased 1.1% in December, following a 1.0% gain in November, and a 0.3% rise in October. The index has risen steadily for nine consecutive months. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) increased 0.1% for the month, while the Lagging Economic Index (LAG) decreased 0.2%.

"The indicators point to an economy in early recovery," says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board. "The coincident economic index shows slow expansion of economic activity through December. The leading economic index suggests that the pace of improvement could pick up this spring."

December's increase for the LEI was led by improvements in the interest rate spread component followed by housing permits. The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. now stands at 106.4 (2004=100).

The six-month growth rate in the index was 5.2% (about a 10.8% annual rate) in the period through December, and it remains substantially higher than earlier in the year. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have remained very widespread in recent months. Eight of 10 indicators that make up the LEI increased in December.

The Conference Board CEI for the U.S. also increased in December, and it has gained in five of the last six months. The Conference Board CEI for the U.S. now stands at 99.9 (2004=100). Industrial production made a large positive contribution to the index, more than offsetting the decline in employment in December. Between June and December, the index has grown by 0.6% (1.2% annual rate).

In December, the lagging economic index continued to decrease. The Conference Board LAG for the U.S. stands at 108.5 (2004=100) in December, with one of the seven components advancing.

With the coincident economic index rising slightly, the coincident-to-lagging ratio increased further. Meanwhile, real GDP expanded at a 2.2% annual rate in the third quarter, its first increase since the second quarter of 2008.

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