The 2020 Mid-Year Economic Update_long

Day: June 8, 2009

Chicago Fed Forecast: GDP to Bounce Back in 2010

At the 16th annual Automotive Outlook Symposium sponsored by the Chicago Federal Reserve, the following median economic forecast of participants was presented:
 
"The nation's economic growth in 2009 will be substantially slower than in 2008, inflation will turn negative (because of lower energy prices and the large amount of slack in the economy), and the unemployment rate will rise substantially. Real GDP, after having fallen 0.8% last year, is forecasted to decrease 1.8% this year and then rise to an above-trend rate of 3.2% in 2010. After rising 1.5% last year, inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is expected decline 0.5% this year and then rise at a moderate pace of 1.6% in 2010. The unemployment rate, after having ...

Employers Remain Cautious on Hiring Plans for the 3Q

Survey results released today by staffing firm Manpower Inc. show that employers are still reluctant to add staff in the third quarter 2009. The hiring picture in the U.S. is unchanged from the survey's second-quarter results, but the rate of labor market contraction is expected to level off.
 
The firm suggests that the results imply the "worst in behind us," though the survey covered mostly hiring plans and not downsizing. So while the analysis itself may be sitting on a shaky foundation, the overall results do show that globally, the employers surveyed remain cautious and are waiting to see whether the third quarter plays out better than the first and second ...

Wholesale Revenues Fall 0.4% in April

April 2009 wholesale revenues were $309.4 billion, down 0.4% from March and 19.5% from April 2008, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
 
April sales of durable goods were down 1.9% from last month and were down 23.4% from a year ago. Sales of motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts and supplies, were down 7.8% from last month and sales of metals and minerals, except petroleum were down 6.5%. Sales of nondurable goods were up 0.8% from last month, but were down 16.1% from last year.
 
Sales of farm product raw materials were up 10.5% from last month and sales of beer, wine, and distilled alcoholic beverages were up 2.6%.
 
Total inventories were $405.4 billion at the end of April, down 1.4% from the revised March level and were down 6.2% from a year ago. ...