The National Association for Business Economics has released its November 2009 Industry Survey, in which NABE panelists
have increased their expectations for growth in 2010. "While the recovery has been jobless so far, that should soon change,"
said NABE President Lynn Reaser, chief economist at Point Loma Nazarene University. "Within the next few months, companies
should be adding instead of cutting jobs."
Panelists expect a "sizable housing
rebound, low inflation, and further rise in stock prices." Panelists are also "mostly optimistic" that the
Federal Reserve's policies will not lead to higher inflation.
expects 3% pace of real GDP growth in the fourth quarter 2009, and 3.2% gain over four quarters of 2010.
NABE panelists believe the end of net employment losses is near, with modest declines during the fourth quarter
followed by a "bottom" in the first quarter of 2010 and gains after that. Most panelists don't expect a complete
recovery of previously lost jobs until 2012.
Housing recovery will gather momentum. Panel expects
housing starts and residential investment to rise sharply in 2010, with housing starts increasing 36% and residential investment
up 9%. Low house prices and interest rates will help drive this improvement.
of 2008-2009 will hit bottom by the end of the year with restocking started again in 2010. Business spending on structures
will continue to decline, but at a slower pace than in 2009.
The dollar will weaken further
in 2010 but will stabilize against the euro.
Inflation will remain low, due to "substantial
labor market slack and further productivity gains."