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MAPI Forecast: Full Recovery in Sight

The MAPI Foundation is forecasting a full U.S. manufacturing recovery by April 2019, predicting 2.8 percent average growth for U.S. Manufacturing between 2018 and 2021. That’s nearly double the organization’s November 2017 forecast of an average 1.5 percent growth over the next three years.

“As of the latest data for January 2018, manufacturing output remains 4.7% below the December 2007 level,” the organization reported in its March forecast. “For the first time, however, recovery is seen in our forecast. We project that the U.S. manufacturing sector will fully regain all lost output by April 2019, just short of a decade since a trough was reached in June 2009.”

MAPI pointed to four encouraging subsectors of the manufacturing economy: aerospace, computer and electronic products, machinery, and chemicals:

  • The organization is projecting a 5.6 percent average growth rate between 2018 and 2021 for the aerospace sector, due in large part to a more robust global economy and strong air travel demand.

  • Both the computer and electronic products and the machinery sectors continue to benefit from a recent capital spending rebound, partially catalyzed by the improved economic growth outlook. The computer and electronic products sector is expected to average 4.8 percent growth between 2018 and 2021, while machinery is expected to grow an average 4.3 percent during that time.

  • The chemicals sector continues to perform well, and MAPI said it anticipates 3.8 percent annual growth between 2018 and 2021. Cyclical strength in housing and demographic forces underpinning the demand for pharmaceuticals are among the tailwinds for chemicals output growth, MAPI said.

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