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U.S. GDP Up 2.3% in 2017 According to Third Estimate

Real GDP at an annual rate of 2.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2017, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.2 percent. Real GDP increased 2.3 percent in 2017, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent in 2016

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month.  In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.5 percent. With this third estimate for the fourth quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains the same; personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and private inventory investment were revised up.

Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 0.9 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent in the third. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 2.8 percent in the third quarter (table 1).

The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, exports, residential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and federal government spending that were partly offset by a negative contribution from private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

The deceleration in real GDP growth in the fourth quarter reflected a downturn in private inventory investment that was partly offset by accelerations in PCE, exports, state and local government spending, nonresidential fixed investment, and federal government spending, and an upturn in residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, turned up.

Current-dollar GDP increased 5.3 percent, or $253.5 billion, in the fourth quarter to a level of $19,754.1 billion. In the third quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 5.3 percent, or $250.6 billion.

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.5 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.7 percent in the third quarter. The PCE price index increased 2.7 percent, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.9 percent, compared with an increase of 1.3 percent.

The upward revision to the percent change in real GDP reflected upward revisions to PCE and private inventory investment.  For more information, see the Technical Note. A detailed "Key Source Data and Assumptions" file is also posted for each release.  For information on updates to GDP, see the

"Additional Information" section that follows.

2017 GDP

Real GDP increased 2.3 percent in 2017, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent in 2016.

The increase in real GDP in 2017 primarily reflected positive contributions from PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, and exports. These contributions were partly offset by a decline in private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

The acceleration in real GDP from 2016 to 2017 reflected upturns in nonresidential fixed investment and in exports and a smaller decrease in private inventory investment.  These movements were partly offset by decelerations in residential fixed investment and in state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, accelerated.

Current-dollar GDP increased 4.1 percent, or $766.1 billion, in 2017 to a level of $19,390.6 billion, compared with an increase of 2.8 percent, or $503.8 billion, in 2016.

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.8 percent in 2017, compared with an increase of 1 percent in 2016. The PCE price index increased 1.7 percent, compared with an increase of 1.2 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.5 percent, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent.

During 2017 real GDP increased 2.6 percent, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent during 2016.  The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.9 percent during 2017, compared with an increase of 1.4 percent during 2016.

For more detail, download the PDF below.

 

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