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Led by slower growth in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) declined to +0.13 in July from +0.48 in June. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from June, but three of the four categories made positive contributions to the index in July. The index’s three-month moving average moved down to +0.05 in July from +0.20 in June.
The contribution from production-related indicators to the CFNAI declined to +0.05 in July from +0.45 in June. Total industrial production edged up 0.1 percent in July after rising 1 percent in June. The sales, orders and inventories category made a contribution of +0.03 to the CFNAI in July, down slightly from +0.06 in June. The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing New Orders Index decreased to 60.2 in July from 63.5 in June.
Employment-related indicators contributed +0.12 to the CFNAI in July, up from +0.03 in June. The civilian unemployment rate decreased to 3.9 percent in July from 4 percent in June. The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI ticked down to –0.07 in July from –0.06 in June. Consumption indicators deteriorated, on balance, pushing down the category’s overall contribution. However, housing indicators improved slightly.