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Global Growth Begins to Moderate in 2019

Second Estimate: Real GDP Up 3.5% in Q3

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the third quarter of 2018, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 4.2 percent.

In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was also 3.5 percent. With this second estimate for the third quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains the same; upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and private inventory investment were offset by downward revisions to personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and state and local government spending.

Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 4 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 0.9 percent (revised) in the second quarter. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 3.8 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent (revised) in the second quarter.

The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected positive contributions from PCE, private inventory investment, nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from exports and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

The deceleration in real GDP growth in the third quarter primarily reflected a downturn in exports and decelerations in nonresidential fixed investment and in PCE. Imports increased in the third quarter after decreasing in the second. These movements were partly offset by an upturn in private inventory investment.

Current dollar GDP increased 5 percent, or $248.4 billion, in the third quarter to a level of $20.7 trillion. In the second quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 7.6 percent, or $370.9 billion.

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.7 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent in the second quarter. The PCE price index increased 1.5 percent, compared with an increase of 2 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.5 percent, compared with an increase of 2.1 percent.

© 2019 Gale Media, Inc.

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