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The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) was +0.27 in December, up slightly from +0.21 in November.
Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from November, and two of the four categories made positive contributions to the index in December. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, edged up to +0.16 in December from +0.12 in November.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, edged up to +0.14 in December from +0.11 in November. Forty-six of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in December, while 39 made negative contributions. Forty indicators improved from November to December, while 44 indicators deteriorated and one was unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, ten made negative contributions.
The contribution from production-related indicators to the CFNAI increased to +0.22 in December from +0.02 in November. Manufacturing industrial production rose 1.1 percent in December after edging up 0.1 percent in November. The sales, orders, and inventories category made a neutral contribution to the CFNAI in December, down from +0.12 in November. The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing New Orders Index decreased to 51.1 in December from 62.1 in November.