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The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) edged down to –0.29 in February from –0.25 in January. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from January, and three of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in February. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down to –0.18 in February from a neutral reading in January.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, decreased to –0.05 in February from +0.12 in January. Thirty-eight of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in February, while 47 made negative contributions. Thirty-seven indicators improved from January to February, while 48 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, 16 made negative contributions.
The contribution from production-related indicators to the CFNAI moved up to –0.16 in February from –0.29 in January. Manufacturing industrial production decreased 0.4 percent in February after falling 0.5 percent in January. The sales, orders, and inventories category made a contribution of +0.03 to the CFNAI in February, up slightly from +0.01 in January.