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The Goods and Services Deficit Increased in March

First Quarter U.S. GDP Up 3.1% According to Second Estimate

Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 3.1% in the first quarter of 2019, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2018, real GDP increased 2.2%.

In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP in the first quarter was 3.2%. Today's estimate reflects downward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and private inventory investment and upward revisions to exports and personal consumption expenditures. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised up; the general picture of economic growth remains the same.

Real gross domestic income increased 1.4% in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 0.5% in the fourth quarter. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 2.2% in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.3% in the fourth quarter.

The increase in real GDP in the first quarter reflected positive contributions from PCE, private inventory investment, exports, state and local government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by a negative contribution from residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

The acceleration in real GDP in the first quarter reflected an upturn in state and local government spending, accelerations in private inventory investment and in exports, and a smaller decrease in residential investment. These movements were partly offset by decelerations in PCE and nonresidential fixed investment, and a downturn in federal government spending. Imports turned down.

Current–dollar GDP increased 3.6%, or $183.7 billion, in the first quarter to a level of $21.05 trillion. In the fourth quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 4.1%, or $206.9 billion.

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.7% in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.7% in the fourth quarter. The PCE price index increased 0.4%, compared with an increase of 1.5%. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1%, compared with an increase of 1.8%.

© 2019 Gale Media, Inc.

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