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Baird Survey: Outlook More Positive Than Current Trends
March 31, 2009
The first quarter Baird Industrial Distribution Survey, from Robert W. Baird & Co. Inc., indicates revenues were down significantly during the quarter, with both the six-month and full-year forecasts slightly better than current trends.
Pricing and gross profit margins appear to be holding relatively steady. The survey also shows 68% of respondents expect some level of benefit to their business as a result of U.S. Government stimulus efforts.
Baird's Industrial Distribution Research Team, led by Senior Research Analyst David Manthey, CFA, collected feedback on first quarter results from nearly 300 independent and captive distributors with combined annual revenue in excess of $40 billion. Key survey findings include:
· Average revenues were down significantly in 1Q09 at -13.4% vs. -3.9% last quarter. · Average pricing was -1.4% year-over-year in 1Q09 vs. +1.1% last quarter. Gross profit margins remain relatively stable with most reporting no change. · Six-month outlook is somewhat better than recent trends with an expectation of -8.2%. · 2009 outlook is consistent with the six-month outlook with an expectation of -8.9%. · Inventories generally decreased in line with or greater than revenue with many distributors planning on 2009 being, "more hand to mouth."