Don’t pin your hopes for a rapid recovery on the results of the presidential election next month, according to Alan Beaulieu of ITR Economics. "No new President, no new Congress can make things change that quickly," he said at the Power Transmission Distributors Association’s 2012 Industry Summit in Dallas, TX, last week.
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The reality is that the economy is a slow-moving machine – and it is heading for a recession in 2014. But that will happen regardless of who gets elected next month, Beaulieu says. Don't worry too much though; 2014 will be a mild recession, "something we can live with if we prepare for it," he says.
The impact of the elections needs to be considered from a longer term perspective. Actions taken – whether changes in tax rates or spending – will have a cumulative impact, and the larger shifts will be seen years down the road. As such, who wins will still matter.
Just don't expect immediate miracles.
But the elections will bring more certainty in the short-term. Businesses will have a better idea of what to expect in 2013 with regard to tax rates and the like, Beaulieu says, and they can start acting accordingly.