The 2020 Mid-Year Economic Update_long

Chicago Fed National Index Rose to -0.15 in March

The CFNAI Diffusion Index decreased to 0.18 in March.

Led by improvements in employment-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to -0.15 in March from -0.31 in February. Three if the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from February, but three of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in March. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down to -0.24 in March from -0.18 in February.

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, decreased to –0.18 in March from –0.08 in February. Thirty-seven of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in March, while 47 made negative contributions and one made a neutral contribution. Forty-eight indicators improved from February to March, while 37 indi­cators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, 23 made negative contributions.

The contribution from production-related indicators to the CFNAI ticked up to –0.10 in March from –0.12 in February. Manufacturing industrial production decreased 0.01 percent in March after falling 0.3 percent in February. The sales, orders, and inventories category made a contribution of +0.05 to the CFNAI in March, up slightly from +0.01 in February.

Employment-related indicators contributed –0.03 to the CFNAI in March, up from –0.15 in February. Total nonfarm payrolls rose by 196,000 in March after increasing by 33,000 in the previous month. The contribution of the personal consumption and housing cate­gory to the CFNAI ticked down to –0.07 in March from –0.06 in February.

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