The 2020 Mid-Year Economic Update_long

Conference Board Leading Economic Index Increases in August

The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) and the Lagging Economic Index (LAG) increased 0.2 percent and 0.3 percent, respectively.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in August to 103.8 (2004 = 100), following a 1.1 percent increase in July, and a 0.7 percent increase in June.

“The LEI continued to rise in August, although at a slower rate than in July,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board. “The LEI’s six-month growth trend has been held back slightly by lackluster contributions from housing permits and new orders for nondefense capital orders. Despite concerns about investment picking up, the economy should continue expanding at a moderate pace for the remainder of the year.”

The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) increased 0.2 percent in August to 109.7 (2004 = 100), and the Lagging Economic Index (LAG) increased 0.3 percent in August to 125.1 (2004 = 100).

“The leading indicators point to an economy that is continuing to gain traction, but most likely won’t repeat its stellar second quarter performance in the second half,” said Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board. “Meanwhile, the CEI, a measure of current economic activity, continued to expand through August, amid improving personal income, employment and retail sales. However, industrial production registered a slight decrease for the first time in seven months.”

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