Chicago Fed National Activity Index Down in June - Modern Distribution Management

Log In

Chicago Fed National Activity Index Down in June

Two of four indicators made positive contributions to the index.
Author
Date

Led by slower growth in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index edged down to 0.12 in June from 0.16 in May, which was revised from an initial estimate of 0.21. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index made nonpositive contributions to the index in June, but two of the four categories increased from May.

The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to 0.13 in June from 0.28 in May, marking its fourth consecutive reading above zero. June’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was somewhat above its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests limited inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, decreased to 0.18 in June from 0.33 in May. Forty-four of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in June, while 41 made negative contributions. Forty indicators improved from May to June, while 43 indicators deteriorated and two were unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 12 made negative contributions.

Employment-related indicators contributed 0.22 to the CFNAI in June, up from 0.14 in May. The unemployment rate decreased to 6.1 percent in June from 6.3 percent in May; and nonfarm payrolls rose by 288,000 in June after increasing by 224,000 in the previous month.

Production-related indicators made a neutral contribution to the CFNAI in June, down from 0.14 in May. Industrial production rose 0.2 percent in June after rising 0.5 percent in May, and manufacturing production increased 0.1 percent in June after increasing 0.4 percent in the previous month. The contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to the CFNAI remained at 0.04 in June.

The contribution from the consumption and housing category to the CFNAI edged up to -0.14 in June from -0.16 in May. Consumption indicators, on balance, improved, pushing the category’s contribution higher. However, housing starts decreased to 893,000 annualized units in June from 985,000 in May, and housing permits decreased to 963,000 annualized units in June from 1,005,000 in the previous month.

For more detail, download the PDF below.

Click Here


Share this article

About the Author
Recommended Reading
Leave a Reply

Leave a Comment

Sign Up for the MDM Update Newsletter

The MDM update newsletter is your best source for news and trends in the wholesale distribution industry.

Get the MDM Update Newsletter

Wholesale distribution news and trends delivered right to your inbox.

Sign-up for our free newsletter and get:

  • Up-to-date news in a quick-to-read format
  • Free access to webcasts, podcasts and live events
  • Exclusive whitepapers, research and reports
  • And more!

2

articles left

Want more Premium content from MDM?

Subscribe today and get:

  • New issues twice each month
  • Unlimited access to mdm.com, including 10+ years of archived data
  • Current trends analysis, market data and economic updates
  • Discounts on select store products and events

Subscribe to continue reading

MDM Premium Subscribers get:

  • Unlimited access to MDM.com
  • 1 year digital subscription, with new issues twice a month
  • Trends analysis, market data and quarterly economic updates
  • Deals on select store products and events

1

article
left

You have one free article remaining

Subscribe to MDM Premium to get unlimited access. Your subscription includes:

  • Two new issues a month
  • Access to 10+ years of archived data on mdm.com
  • Quarterly economic updates, trends analysis and market data
  • Store and event discounts

To continue reading, you must be an MDM Premium subscriber.

Join other distribution executives who use MDM Premium to optimize their business. Our insights and analysis help you enter the right new markets, turbocharge your sales and marketing efforts, identify business partners that help you scale, and stay ahead of your competitors.

Register for full access

By providing your email, you agree to receive announcements from us and our partners for our newsletter, events, surveys, and partner resources per MDM Terms & Conditions. You can withdraw consent at any time.

Learn More about Custom Reports

Request a Market Prospector Demo

  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.