Conference Board Leading Economic Index Increases in June - Modern Distribution Management

Log In

Conference Board Leading Economic Index Increases in June

Economist: Index signals expanding economy that may accelerate in the second half of the year.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.3 percent in June to 102.2, following a 0.7 percent increase in May, and a 0.3 percent increase in April. The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) increased 0.2 percent, and the Conference Board Lagging Economic Index (LAG) increased 0.5 percent.

“Broad-based increases in the LEI over the last six months signal an economy that is expanding in the near term and may even somewhat accelerate in the second half,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board. “Housing permits, the weakest indicator during this period, reflects some risk to this improving outlook. But favorable financial conditions, generally positive trends in the labor markets and the outlook for new orders in manufacturing have offset the housing market weakness over the past six months.”

Positive contributions to the LEI from the financial and new orders components more than offset declines in building permits and the labor market indicators. In the first half of this year, the leading economic index increased 2.7 percent (about a 5.5 percent annual rate), slower than the growth of 3.5 percent (about a 7.2 percent annual rate) during the second half of 2013. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators continue to be more widespread than the weaknesses.

The CEI, a measure of current economic activity, rose to 109.2 in June. The index rose 1.3 percent (about a 2.6 percent annual rate) between December 2013 and June 2014, slightly faster than the growth of 1 percent (about a 2.1 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. The strengths among the coincident indicators have remained very widespread, with all components advancing over the past six months. The lagging economic index, which now stands at 124.4, continued to increase, but at a higher rate than the CEI. As a result, the coincident-to-lagging ratio has declined.

“The CEI shows the pace of economic activity continued to expand moderately through June,” said Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board. “Stronger consumer demand driven by sustained job gains and improving confidence remains the main source of improvement for the U.S. economy. In addition to a stronger housing market, more business investment could also provide an upside to the overall economy.”

Share this article

About the Author
Recommended Reading
Leave a Reply

Leave a Comment

Sign Up for the MDM Update Newsletter

The MDM update newsletter is your best source for news and trends in the wholesale distribution industry.

Get the MDM Update Newsletter

Wholesale distribution news and trends delivered right to your inbox.

Sign-up for our free newsletter and get:

  • Up-to-date news in a quick-to-read format
  • Free access to webcasts, podcasts and live events
  • Exclusive whitepapers, research and reports
  • And more!


articles left

Want more Premium content from MDM?

Subscribe today and get:

  • New issues twice each month
  • Unlimited access to, including 10+ years of archived data
  • Current trends analysis, market data and economic updates
  • Discounts on select store products and events

Subscribe to continue reading

MDM Premium Subscribers get:

  • Unlimited access to
  • 1 year digital subscription, with new issues twice a month
  • Trends analysis, market data and quarterly economic updates
  • Deals on select store products and events



You have one free article remaining

Subscribe to MDM Premium to get unlimited access. Your subscription includes:

  • Two new issues a month
  • Access to 10+ years of archived data on
  • Quarterly economic updates, trends analysis and market data
  • Store and event discounts

To continue reading, you must be an MDM Premium subscriber.

Join other distribution executives who use MDM Premium to optimize their business. Our insights and analysis help you enter the right new markets, turbocharge your sales and marketing efforts, identify business partners that help you scale, and stay ahead of your competitors.

Register for full access

By providing your email, you agree to receive announcements from us and our partners for our newsletter, events, surveys, and partner resources per MDM Terms & Conditions. You can withdraw consent at any time.

Learn More about Custom Reports

Request a Market Prospector Demo

  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.