The 2020 Mid-Year Economic Update_long

Federal Reserve: Economy Continues to Expand

Severe weather has negative effect on many districts, sectors.

Reports from most of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicated that economic conditions continued to expand from January to early February, according to the latest Beige Book from the Federal Reserve.

New York and Philadelphia experienced a slight decline in activity, which was mostly attributed to the unusually severe weather experienced in those regions. Growth slowed in Chicago, and Kansas City reported that conditions remained stable during the reporting period. The outlook among most Districts remained optimistic.

Manufacturing activity expanded at a moderate pace from January through early February in most Districts. Several Districts reported that severe winter weather had a negative effect on sales and production during this period, including Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, and Dallas. Defense-related manufacturers reported sluggish overall conditions and expected sales to trend downward. Auto production was strong in Chicago despite weather-related slowdowns in sales, and Cleveland reported auto production to be higher than a year ago. Most Districts were optimistic about the future and expect manufacturing activity to rise in the coming months.

Retail sales growth weakened since the previous report for most Districts, as severe winter weather limited activity. Weather was also cited as a contributing factor to softer auto sales in many Districts, with the exception of Cleveland, which saw strong gains. Tourism increased in a number of Districts but declined in Philadelphia and was reported to have been mixed in New York and Minneapolis. 

Residential real estate markets continued to improve in several areas, albeit modestly. Many Districts cited low inventories of housing and continued home price appreciation. Many Districts continued to report improving conditions but noted that growth had slowed. Commercial real estate leasing expanded, according to most reports, while reports on construction activity were mixed.

Employment levels improved gradually for most Districts, and shortages of specialized skilled labor continued to be reported. Price pressures remained subdued, with the exception of upward cost pressures for some energy and construction products. Wage pressures remained stable for most Districts.

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