The global economy will continue expanding at more than 3 percent in early 2019, but growth is showing signs of peaking, according to The Conference Board's latest Global Economic Outlook. The Conference Board projects global growth to be 3.1 percent next year, down from 3.2 percent in 2018.
Looking beyond 2019, The Conference Board says slower growth of labor supply and modest productivity growth are key concerns.
According to the study, U.S. expansion will likely peak in the next few months as the effects of tax cuts and fiscal spending wane during the course of 2019. Expansion in Europe is moderating, study authors said, and the outlook for major emerging markets calls for moderation as well.
“Monetary policy will continue to tighten, but only moderately, unless inflation emerges much faster than anticipated. Trade disputes will impact some sectors and companies exposed to tariffs but the effects are still small at economy-wide levels, provided tariff increases do not further escalate,” the study authors said in a statement releasing the results. “Labor markets–and not just for workers with higher skills–are tightening, while wages and productivity show only modest signs of a comeback.”
The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook 2019 provides projections for the output growth of the world economy, including 11 major regions and individual estimates for 33 mature and 36 emerging market economies for 2019–2023 and 2024–28.