The 2020 Mid-Year Economic Update_long

MAPI Quarterly Forecast: Lower Oil Prices Spur Consumer Spending

Manufacturing production is expected to outpace GDP.

Lower oil prices mean more purchasing power for U.S. consumers and a relatively positive near-term economic outlook, according to the Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation Quarterly Economic Forecast.

The MAPI Foundation, the research affiliate of the Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation, released its quarterly economic forecast, predicting that inflation-adjusted gross domestic product will expand 3 percent in 2015, up from 2.8 percent in the November 2014 report, and 2.7 percent in 2016, a decrease from 3 percent in the previous forecast.

Manufacturing production is expected to outpace GDP, with anticipated growth of 3.7 percent in 2015 (an increase from 3.5 percent in the previous forecast) and 3.6 percent in 2016 (a decline from 3.9 percent in the November report).

“Consumer spending is stronger because of lower oil prices, and manufacturing job growth is being pulled by increased production,” said MAPI Foundation Chief Economist Daniel J. Meckstroth. “The fact that employment is continuing to grow shows the U.S. economy is maintaining its momentum. Confidence indicators are strong, the unemployment rate is low, and credit is available. More people with more income tends to be self-reinforcing.”

Production in non-high-tech manufacturing is expected to increase 3.4 percent in 2015 and 3.1 percent in 2016. High-tech manufacturing production, which accounts for approximately 5 percent of all manufacturing, is anticipated to grow 6.1 percent in 2015 and 9.1percent in 2016.

The forecast for inflation-adjusted investment in equipment is for growth of 8.4 percent in 2015 and 6.9 percent in 2016. Capital equipment spending in high-tech sectors will also rise. Inflation-adjusted expenditures for information processing equipment are anticipated to increase by double digits– 12.8 percent in 2015 and 11.8 percent in 2016. The MAPI Foundation expects industrial equipment expenditures to advance 10.4 percent in 2015 and 6.4 percent in 2016. The outlook for spending on transportation equipment is for an increase of 3.8 percent in 2015 preceding a 1.4 percent decline in 2016.

Spending on nonresidential structures is anticipated to decrease by 5.1 percent in 2015 due to a major decline in mining and drilling activity before rebounding to 5.3 percent growth in 2016. Residential fixed investment is forecast to increase 10.4 percent in 2015 and 11.4 percent in 2016. Meckstroth anticipates 1.17 million housing starts in 2015 and 1.34 million in 2016.

A strong dollar and strong economy relative to our trading partners will slow economic growth this year and next. Inflation-adjusted exports are anticipated to increase 3.3 percent in 2015 and 2.9 percent in 2016. Imports are expected to grow 6.3 percent in 2015 and 6.7 percent in 2016. The MAPI Foundation forecasts overall unemployment to average 5.6 percent in 2015 and 5.3 percent in 2016.

The outlook is for an increase of 282,000 manufacturing jobs in 2015, a jump from the 202,000 anticipated in the November report. Meckstroth envisions 162,000 manufacturing jobs to be added in 2016, a healthy increase from 16,000 in the previous forecast.

The refiners’ acquisition cost per barrel of imported crude oil is expected to average $49.50 in 2015 and $59 in 2016, a significant downward revision from $80 and $80.60, respectively, in the November forecast. 

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