CFNAI Dips in November

Led by slower growth in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index decreased to +0.37.
CFNAI November 2021

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to +0.37 in November from +0.75 in October.

Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in November, but all four categories deteriorated from October, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved up to +0.37 in November from +0.25 in October.

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, increased to +0.35 in November from +0.18 in October.

Fifty-three of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in November, while 32 made negative contributions.

Thirty-two indicators improved from October to November, while 53 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, ten made negative contributions.

Production-related indicators contributed +0.21 to the CFNAI in November, down from +0.42 in October.

Industrial production increased 0.5% in November after rising 1.7% in the previous month. The contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to the CFNAI edged down to +0.03 in November from +0.06 in October.

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