Led by increases in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to +0.13 in June from -0.30 in May. All four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from May, and three of the four categories made positive contributions to the index in June.
The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to +0.06 in June from –0.04 in May.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, increased to +0.01 in June from -0.08 in May. Forty of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in June, while 45 made negative contributions. Fifty-six indicators improved from May to June, while 28 indicators deteriorated and one was unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 21 made negative contributions.
The contribution from production-related indicators to the CFNAI increased to +0.09 in June from -0.16 in May. Total industrial production increased 0.4 percent in June after moving up 0.1 percent in May, and the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index increased to 57.8 in June from 54.9 in the previous month. The sales, orders, and inventories category made a contribution of +0.02 to the CFNAI in June, up slightly from a neutral contribution in May.
Employment-related indicators contributed +0.06 to the CFNAI in June, up from -0.05 in May. Civilian nonagricultural employment increased by 431,000 in June after decreasing by 64,000 in the previous month; however, the civilian unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4 percent in June from 4.3 percent in May.
