The 2020 Mid-Year Economic Update_long

Chicago Fed National Index Up in October

Index points to slight increase in economic growth during the month.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.32 in October from +0.24 in September. Fifty of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in October, while 35 made negative contributions. Fifty-one indicators improved from September to October, while 33 indicators deteriorated, and one was unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 17 made negative contributions.

The contribution from production-related indicators to the CFNAI moved down to +0.06 in October from +0.09 in September. Industrial production edged up 0.1 percent in October after increasing 0.2 per­cent in September. The contribution from the sales, orders, and inventories category to the CFNAI was unchanged at +0.04 in October.

Employment-related indicators contributed +0.19 to the CFNAI in October, up from +0.05 in September. Total nonfarm payrolls rose by 250,000 in October after increasing by 118,000 in the previous month. The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI ticked down to –0.05 in October from –0.04 in September. On balance, housing indicators weakened slightly from September, pushing down the category’s overall contribution in October.

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