Crystal Ball Still Foggy On the Economy - Modern Distribution Management

Crystal Ball Still Foggy On the Economy

Though ambiguity still rules the economic future, a consensus is forming that recovery will be a long, slow process. Experts from academia to governments are doing their best to clear the fog in their crystal balls but few hard and fast answers can be found.

That said, there are some interesting insights appearing. In a recent interview with Knowledge@Wharton, Jeremy Siegel, a finance professor at Wharton, noted that demand in several sectors is starting to show signs of increasing.

But don't expect a huge jump in the near future, Siegel advises. Industries like housing and automotive have been battered. So even though we've likely hit the bottom - Siegel expects May, June or July to be declared the official bottom - we still have a long way to climb before we can say things are ...

jenel-articleonly

Though ambiguity still rules the economic future, a consensus is forming that recovery will be a long, slow process. Experts from academia to governments are doing their best to clear the fog in their crystal balls but few hard and fast answers can be found.

That said, there are some interesting insights appearing. In a recent interview with Knowledge@Wharton, Jeremy Siegel, a finance professor at Wharton, noted that demand in several sectors is starting to show signs of increasing.

But don’t expect a huge jump in the near future, Siegel advises. Industries like housing and automotive have been battered. So even though we’ve likely hit the bottom – Siegel expects May, June or July to be declared the official bottom – we still have a long way to climb before we can say things are good again. (Read the interview with Siegel here.).

At the same time, the International Monetary Fund is showing a little more optimism about recovery now than it did in April. In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF forecast the global economy to grow 2.5% in 2010, up from its earlier prediction of 1.9%.

The only thing certain about the economy at the moment is the uncertainty we have about what recovery will look like, an issue that Pembroke Consulting’s Adam Fein addressed in a recent blog.

While he agrees the most likely scenario is for a "U-shaped" recovery, he’s also seeing some potentially troubling signs, as well. He says: "I believe there is a credible scenario developing for unexpectedly rapid growth in 2010/2011 – a ‘V-shaped’ recovery that could sow the seeds for much bigger problems because this scenario carries a significant chance of inflation."

As such, the worst may be over, but that doesn’t mean that things are settling down. We may still hit speed bumps, but most analysts seem to agree the economy is beginning its upward trend."

Share this article

About the Author
Recommended Reading
Leave a Reply

Leave a Comment

Sign Up for the MDM Update Newsletter

The MDM update newsletter is your best source for news and trends in the wholesale distribution industry.

2

articles left

Want more Premium content from MDM?

Subscribe today and get:

  • New issues twice each month
  • Unlimited access to mdm.com, including 10+ years of archived data
  • Current trends analysis, market data and economic updates
  • Discounts on select store products and events

Subscribe to continue reading

MDM Premium Subscribers get:

  • Unlimited access to MDM.com
  • 1 year digital subscription, with new issues twice a month
  • Trends analysis, market data and quarterly economic updates
  • Deals on select store products and events

1

article
left

You have one free article remaining

Subscribe to MDM Premium to get unlimited access. Your subscription includes:

  • Two new issues a month
  • Access to 10+ years of archived data on mdm.com
  • Quarterly economic updates, trends analysis and market data
  • Store and event discounts

To continue reading, you must be an MDM Premium subscriber.

Join other distribution executives who use MDM Premium to optimize their business. Our insights and analysis help you enter the right new markets, turbocharge your sales and marketing efforts, identify business partners that help you scale, and stay ahead of your competitors.

Register for full access

By providing your email, you agree to receive announcements from us and our partners for our newsletter, events, surveys, and partner resources per MDM Terms & Conditions. You can withdraw consent at any time.