The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. was unchanged in June, following a 0.2 percent increase in May and a 0.8 percent increase in April. The Coincident Economic Index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging economic index increased 0.3 percent.
The LEI now stands at 95.2 (2004=100). Five of the 10 indicators that make up The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. increased in June.
"Declines in building permits, new orders and stock prices were offset by gains in consumer expectations, initial claims for unemployment insurance, and other financial indicators," says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board. "However, the LEI’s six-month growth rate remains positive, suggesting the economy will continue expanding through the end of the year."
The Conference Board CEI for the U.S., a measure of current economic activity, now stands at 105.9 (2004=100). The index declined 0.2 percent (about a -0.4 percent annual rate) between December 2012 and June 2013, a reversal from its growth of 0 percent (about a 4.1 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. However, the strengths among the coincident indicators have remained widespread, with three out of four components advancing over the past six months.
The lagging economic index now stands at 119.0. The LAG continued to increase almost at the same pace as the CEI, and the coincident-to-lagging ratio remained unchanged. Real GDP expanded at a 1.8 percent (annual rate) in the first quarter of the year.
"Some segments of the economy are turning around faster than others, resulting in positive but moderate growth," says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board. "The biggest uncertainties remain the pace of business spending, the improvements in consumer spending power and the impact of slower global growth on U.S. exports."
