The Institute for Supply Management has released its spring 2009 Semiannual Economic Forecast, which shows that expectations for the remainder of 2009 have weakened in both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors.
The manufacturing summary, as presented by ISM:
While 15% of respondents predict revenues to be 13.7% greater in 2009 than in 2008, an overall revenue decrease of 14.7% is expected for manufacturing as 67% expect a 25.2% decline, and 18% expect no change. This represents a significant decline in expectations from December 2008 when the panel of supply management executives predicted a 1.1% decrease in 2009 revenues compared to 2008. With operating capacity at 67%, an expected capital investment decline of 22.7% and prices expected to decrease 5.3% during 2009, manufacturers will need to focus on cost-cutting to offset lower revenue.
Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products is the only manufacturing industry expecting a revenue increase in 2009.
The non-manufacturing summary:
Fifty percent of non-manufacturing purchasing and supply executives expect their 2009 revenues to be lower by 14.5% than in 2008. Overall, respondents currently expect a 5.1% net decrease in overall revenues, much lower than the 0.7% increase that was forecast in December 2008.
Non-manufacturing industries expecting increases in revenue in 2009 are: Finance & Insurance; and Other Services.
More at www.ism.ws.”