Leading Economic Index Posts Sixth Consecutive Increase - Modern Distribution Management

Log In

Leading Economic Index Posts Sixth Consecutive Increase

Numbers from The Conference Board suggest 'recovery is developing.'
Author
Date

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. increased for the sixth straight month in September, improving 1.0%. The Coincident Economic Index remained unchanged; the Lagging Economic Index declined 0.3%.

Except for the average workweek and building permits, all the leading indicators related to the LEI posted positive contributions in September. The LEI currently stands at 103.5 (2004=100).The six-month change in the index also continues to rise, now at 5.7% (an 11.8% annual rate) in the period through September, up from -2.7% (a -5.3% annual rate) for the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have remained widespread in recent months.

The stagnation of the CEI for the U.S. follows small increases in the previous two months. Employment has continued to fall, while industrial production has risen for three straight months. Between March and September 2009, the index decreased 1.1% (a -2.2% annual rate), slower than the decline of 3.4% (a -6.8% annual rate) for the previous six months. The CEI is currently 99.9 (2004=100).

In September, the lagging economic index for the U.S. continued to decrease, and with the coincident economic index remaining unchanged, the coincident-to-lagging ratio increased again. Meanwhile, real GDP fell at a 0.7% annual rate in the second quarter, following a contraction of 6.4% annual rate for the first quarter of the year. The LAG now stands at 109.6 (2004=100).

Says Ken Goldstein, Economist at The Conference Board: “The LEI has risen for six consecutive months and the coincident economic index has increased in two of the last three months,” says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board. “These numbers strongly suggest that a recovery is developing. However, the intensity of that recovery will depend on how much, and how soon, demand picks up.”

Share this article

About the Author
Recommended Reading
Leave a Reply

Leave a Comment

Sign Up for the MDM Update Newsletter

The MDM update newsletter is your best source for news and trends in the wholesale distribution industry.

Get the MDM Update Newsletter

Wholesale distribution news and trends delivered right to your inbox.

Sign-up for our free newsletter and get:

  • Up-to-date news in a quick-to-read format
  • Free access to webcasts, podcasts and live events
  • Exclusive whitepapers, research and reports
  • And more!

2

articles left

Want more Premium content from MDM?

Subscribe today and get:

  • New issues twice each month
  • Unlimited access to mdm.com, including 10+ years of archived data
  • Current trends analysis, market data and economic updates
  • Discounts on select store products and events

Subscribe to continue reading

MDM Premium Subscribers get:

  • Unlimited access to MDM.com
  • 1 year digital subscription, with new issues twice a month
  • Trends analysis, market data and quarterly economic updates
  • Deals on select store products and events

1

article
left

You have one free article remaining

Subscribe to MDM Premium to get unlimited access. Your subscription includes:

  • Two new issues a month
  • Access to 10+ years of archived data on mdm.com
  • Quarterly economic updates, trends analysis and market data
  • Store and event discounts

To continue reading, you must be an MDM Premium subscriber.

Join other distribution executives who use MDM Premium to optimize their business. Our insights and analysis help you enter the right new markets, turbocharge your sales and marketing efforts, identify business partners that help you scale, and stay ahead of your competitors.

Register for full access

By providing your email, you agree to receive announcements from us and our partners for our newsletter, events, surveys, and partner resources per MDM Terms & Conditions. You can withdraw consent at any time.

Learn More about Custom Reports

Request a Market Prospector Demo

  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.