MAPI: U.S. Trade Deficit Up 6% in 3Q - Modern Distribution Management

Log In

MAPI: U.S. Trade Deficit Up 6% in 3Q

Uneven changes in export growth and trade imbalances make the future of world trade unclear.
Author
Date

World trade growth is down sharply in 2013, a trend reflected in the U.S. and Chinese trade in manufactures during the third quarter of 2013, according to an analysis from the Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation.

In the report, Ernest Preeg, Ph.D., MAPI senior advisor for international trade and finance, notes that U.S. exports grew by 2 percent in the third quarter after having advanced 1 percent from January to September. The U.S. trade deficit was relatively flat in the first two quarters but grew by 6 percent in the third quarter.

Chinese trade was uneven. Exports soared by 19 percent in the first quarter, by 3 percent in the second quarter, and by 4 percent in the third quarter. A huge increase of 28 percent in the trade surplus in the first quarter was followed by a 5 percent decline in the second quarter and a leveling off in the third quarter.

“These uneven changes in export growth and trade imbalances indicate an unclear path ahead, which will be driven largely by the export-led growth strategies of U.S. trading partners, particularly in Asia,” Preeg said.

Increasing trade imbalances from 2009 to 2012 have eased greatly in 2013. For instance, from 2009 to 2012, Chinese exports of manufactures rose by 71 percent to $1.9 trillion, almost double the U.S. growth of 38 percent to $1.1 trillion. The Chinese surplus surged by 92 percent to $866 billion, while the U.S. deficit rose by 61 percent to $516 billion during that time frame.

Conversely, based on the January to September 2013 figures, Preeg estimates the Chinese surplus will increase by about $40 billion in 2013 compared with $127 billion in 2012, and the U.S. deficit will rise by about $10 billion in 2013 compared with $41 billion in 2012.

“The big question is whether this sharp decline in the trade imbalances will continue in 2014 and beyond, and there is no definitive answer,” Preeg said. “The U.S. share of global exports of manufactures declined sharply from 19 percent in 2000 to 12 percent in 2012, and will decline further in 2013. The EU share went from 22 percent to 19 percent while the Chinese share soared from 7 percent in 2000 to 22 percent in 2012."

Share this article

About the Author
Recommended Reading
Leave a Reply

Leave a Comment

Sign Up for the MDM Update Newsletter

The MDM update newsletter is your best source for news and trends in the wholesale distribution industry.

Get the MDM Update Newsletter

Wholesale distribution news and trends delivered right to your inbox.

Sign-up for our free newsletter and get:

  • Up-to-date news in a quick-to-read format
  • Free access to webcasts, podcasts and live events
  • Exclusive whitepapers, research and reports
  • And more!

2

articles left

Want more Premium content from MDM?

Subscribe today and get:

  • New issues twice each month
  • Unlimited access to mdm.com, including 10+ years of archived data
  • Current trends analysis, market data and economic updates
  • Discounts on select store products and events

Subscribe to continue reading

MDM Premium Subscribers get:

  • Unlimited access to MDM.com
  • 1 year digital subscription, with new issues twice a month
  • Trends analysis, market data and quarterly economic updates
  • Deals on select store products and events

1

article
left

You have one free article remaining

Subscribe to MDM Premium to get unlimited access. Your subscription includes:

  • Two new issues a month
  • Access to 10+ years of archived data on mdm.com
  • Quarterly economic updates, trends analysis and market data
  • Store and event discounts

To continue reading, you must be an MDM Premium subscriber.

Join other distribution executives who use MDM Premium to optimize their business. Our insights and analysis help you enter the right new markets, turbocharge your sales and marketing efforts, identify business partners that help you scale, and stay ahead of your competitors.

Register for full access

By providing your email, you agree to receive announcements from us and our partners for our newsletter, events, surveys, and partner resources per MDM Terms & Conditions. You can withdraw consent at any time.

Learn More about Custom Reports

Request a Market Prospector Demo

  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.