Stephen Tusa of J.P. Morgan told Heating, Air-conditioning and Refrigeration Distributors International recently that he has a hopeful but sobering outlook on the years ahead. At the J.P. Morgan HVACR Market Outlook and Forecast Webinar, Tusa said companies expect a “slow growth” environment for the near future. But the U.S. remains a “bright spot” on a global scale.
He said data does not point to a near-term recession.
Tusa evaluated demand from three perspectives: new construction, add-on in existing homes and replacement demand. He predicted modest growth for the residential AC/heat pump market, as well as residential equipment revenue.
Tusa also forecast growth for commercial HVAC in 2013 and 2014. Construction indicators are showing signs of improvement, while public sector construction spending remains weak.
As far as regulatory issues, J.P. Morgan is expecting continued increases in the price for R-22 refrigerant as allocations are lowered. Declining market shares for R-22 based units suggest that higher prices are changing consumer behavior.
The webinar with Tusa’s commentary and the 2012 annual report with forecast models for residential and commercial markets, is available for purchase at www.hardinet.org.