The 2020 Mid-Year Economic Update_long

Chicago Fed National Index Down in September

Index points to a moderation in economic growth in September.

 The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to +0.17 in September from +0.27 in August. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from August, but three of the four categories made positive contributions to the index in September. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down to +0.21 in September from +0.27 in August.

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, was unchanged at +0.18 in September. Forty-six of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in September, while 39 made negative contributions. Thirty-six indicators improved from August to September, while 49 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, 11 made negative contributions.

The contribution from production-related indicators to the CFNAI moved down to +0.11 in September from +0.16 in August. Industrial production increased 0.3 percent in September after rising 0.4 per­cent in August. The sales, orders, and inventories category made a contribution of +0.05 to the CFNAI in September, down from +0.10 in August. The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing New Orders Index decreased to 61.8 in September from 65.1 in August.

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