Metalforming companies predict a slight uptick in business conditions in the coming months despite a drop in current average daily shipping levels, according to the latest Business Conditions Report by the Precision Metalforming Association (PMA).

“The modest increase in business activity predicted by metalforming manufacturers in the August report is a positive signal that our members remain resilient despite inflation and other issues that impact the supply chain,” said PMA President David Klotz in an Aug. 22 news release.

Economic Activity

• More metalforming companies (18%) expect an increase in general economic activity in the next three months, compared to the 11% of companies that said the same in July. 
• 53% of metalformers predict no change in economic activity, compared to 55% in July.
• 29% of metalformers forecast a decrease in economic activity, down from 34% last month.

Incoming Orders

• Metalformers anticipate a modest improvement in incoming orders, with 26% of survey respondents expecting an increase in orders during the next three months (compared to 18% in July).
• 46% of responding companies predict no change to incoming orders, the same percentage reported last month. 
• 28% of metalformers forecast a decrease in orders, compared to 36% in July.

Daily Shipping Levels

• Current average daily shipping levels dipped in August for the second straight month, with 42% of responding companies reporting a decrease in shipping levels, compared to 28% in July). 
• 16% of metalformers reported an increase in shipping levels, down from 19% in July.
• 42% of respondents reported no change in daily shipping levels, compared to 53% last month.

Lead Times

• Lead times rose slightly in August, with 11% of metalforming companies reporting an increase in lead times, compared to 7% in July. 
• 9% of companies had a portion of their workforce on short time or layoff in August, increasing from 5% in July.
• 46% of companies are currently expanding their workforce, compared to 42% last month.

Looking Ahead

Klotz said there is a growing concern about the possible labor strike by the United Auto Workers, which could negatively impact metalworkers who are major suppliers to the auto sector. 

“In addition, we are watching reports that US Steel is looking for a buyer,” Klotz said. “Such a sale could affect steel supplies and availability, as it already is a tight market due to limited domestic suppliers of flat-rolled steel and a range of trade restrictions on imports.”

Prepared monthly, PMA’s report provides an economic indicator for the next three months of manufacturing, sampling 110 metalforming companies in the United States and Canada. Below are the August results.