U.S. producer prices increased in September after an August decline, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data that was delayed by the 43-day government shutdown.

Released Nov. 25, the Bureau’s Producer Price Index figures showed that wholesale inflation increased 0.3% month-over-month during September, matching economists’ expectations. It followed a 0.1% decline in August.

MDM Forecast: November 2025 Update

The PPI tracks average price shifts at the wholesale level before they reach customers.

The increase was attributed to higher energy and food costs, which led to a 2.7% rise in the PPI on a year-over-year basis. The PPI index for final demand goods advanced by 0.9% month-to-month — matching the largest increase since February 2024. Two-thirds of that increase was traced to prices for energy, which jumped 3.5%, while the food index increased 1.1%. 

Excluding volatile energy and food, core prices increased 0.1% month-to-month — trailing economists’ forecasts — and increased 2.6% year-over-year.

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U.S. Producer Price Index Month-Over-Month

U.S. Producer Price Index Year-Over-Year

Economic context: The September PPI report release came about two weeks before the Federal Reserve holds its next Federal Open Markets Committee meeting, out of which expectations persist of another interest rate cut — though confidence in that has weakened somewhat over the past several weeks. While the PPI report is typically factored into the Fed’s interest rate policy decisions, the now months-old data is unlikely to sway the central bank one way or another.

U.S. Core Producer Price Index Month-Over-Month

U.S. Core Producer Price Index Year-Over-Year