HVACR distributors that are members of Heating, Air-Conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International (HARDI) saw sales decrease by 5.9% during January month-over-month, hampered by one fewer billing day, with a more modest decline on a same-day basis. That’s according to HARDI’s monthly TRENDS report, issued March 5.
The top-line figure follows a 2.4% overall increase in December. On a same-day basis, HARDI estimates that January sales were closer to -1.4%, following a -2.3% decline in December.
On a trailing 12 month basis, annual sales growth through January was +2.3%.
“A sales decline of more than 5% is a disappointing way to start the year, but this year has one less billing day than January of 2025,” said Brian Loftus, Macroeconomic and Residential Market Analyst at HARDI. “We estimate the sales decline would have been closer to 1.4% with the same number of billing days.”
The monthly HARDI members sales survey also calculates distributor’s Days Sales Outstanding, which is a measure of how quickly customers pay their bills. HARDI said the DSO for January was less than 39.4 days, just behind the sub-39 of December, but much improved from the 43-day area seen in January 2024, 2023 and 2022.
“The recent DSO trends are not raising any red flags, which is a relief after the Fed has cut rates six times during the past eighteen months,” Loftus added. “The early months of the year are the sleepy time for our industry where demand has been treading water. There have been some early signs that the rate cuts are helping to wake our economy. Hopefully, those economic green shoots keep growing, like seeing leaves on trees during the next couple of months.
HARDI members do not receive financial compensation in exchange for their monthly sales data and can discontinue their participation without prior notice or penalty. Participation is voluntary, and the depth of market coverage varies from region to region. An independent entity collects and compiles the data that can include products not directly associated with the HVACR industry.
