Energy Continues to Drive Consumer Inflation in May Alongside Core Uptick - Modern Distribution Management

Energy Continues to Drive Consumer Inflation in May Alongside Core Uptick

Surging energy prices continue to skew top-line CPI results, while core inflation trailed market expectations and decelerated month-over-month. Get the key numbers and charts here.
Refueling a car at a gas station

U.S. consumer inflation continued to soar during May as spiked oil prices further skewed top-line figures, while core inflation posted a modest acceleration.

Data released June 10 by the Labor Department showed that its Consumer Price Index overall figure rose 0.5% during May month-over-month and jumped 4.2% year-over-year, with the latter charting as the largest annual increase since April 2023. Those figures followed April’s 0.6% monthly increase and 3.8% annual and were in line with market forecasts.

May’s monthly figures were predominantly driven by a 3.9% jump in the subindex for energy after a 3.8% advance in April and 10.9% spike in March following the start of the Iran war on Feb. 28. That index accounted for over 60% of the monthly all items increase. The May index for shelter rose 0.3% MoM; the food index increased 0.2%; food at home rose 0.1% and food away from home increased 0.3%.

Meanwhile, core inflation, which removes volatile food and energy categories, increased a modest 0.2% MoM and 2.9% YoY — with the monthly figure below a 0.3% market estimate and less than April’s 0.4% increase.

May’s Producer Price Index figures are set to be reported July 14.

U.S. Wholesale Sales Post More Strong Growth in April, Inventories Slow – June 9

Get MDM’s 2Q26 Forecast Report – Updated through May 15 (Premium access)

Image credit: U.S. Department of Labor

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