The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.5 percent in November, following a 0.9 percent increase in October and a 0.1 percent increase in September. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) and the Lagging Economic Index (LAG) each increased 0.1 percent.

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\”November’s increase in the LEI for the U.S. was widespread among the leading indicators and continues to suggest that the risk of an economic downturn in the near term has receded,\” says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board.

The LEI for the U.S. now stands at 118.0 (2004=100). Positive contributions from financial indicators, building permits and consumer expectations offset large negative contributions from the average workweek for production workers and the index of supplier deliveries. In the six-month period ending November 2011, the leading economic index increased 2.8 percent (about a 5.7 percent annual rate), slightly lower than the growth of 3.1 percent (about a 6.2 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. Additionally, the strengths and weaknesses among the leading indicators have been balanced.

The coincident economic index, a measure of current economic activity, stayed relatively flat in November, and now stands at 103.7 (2004=100). The index rose 0.8 percent (about a 1.6 percent annual rate) between May 2011 and November 2011, slower than the growth of 1.2 percent (about a 2.4 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. The strengths among the coincident indicators have remained widespread, with all components advancing over the past six months.

The lagging economic index increased at the same pace as the CEI, and the coincident-to-lagging ratio remained unchanged. Real GDP expanded at a 2.0 percent annual rate in the third quarter of the year, the highest reading so far in 2011.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index now stands at 110.9 (2004=100).

\”The LEI is pointing to continued growth this winter, possibly even gaining momentum by spring,\” says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board. \”For the second month in a row, building permits made a relatively strong contribution and there is a chance that the long decline in housing is finally slowing.

\”However, this somewhat positive outlook for the domestic economy is at odds with a global economy that appears to be losing steam. In particular, a deeper-than-expected recession in Europe could easily derail the outlook for the U.S. economy.\”