ISM: Supply Execs’ 2024 Revenue Forecast Sinks 63% from December - Modern Distribution Management

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ISM: Supply Execs’ 2024 Revenue Forecast Sinks 63% from December

Mirroring the latest MDM Forecast, revenue forecasts from manufacturing respondent now expect low single-digit revenue growth.
American Flag flying in front of manufacturing factory

Manufacturing executives surveyed by the Institute for Supply Management expect their 2024 annual revenues to increase in the low-single digits — a considerably lower rate than when polled in December.

ISM shared the results of its Spring 2024 Semiannual Economic Forecast on May 15, which showed that some 900 U.S. purchasing and supply executives overall expect the U.S. economy to softly expand for the rest of 2024, with revenues in manufacturing and services to grow at a much slower rate than when polled at the end of 2023.

The survey’s manufacturing executives collectively indicated that they expect 2024 revenue to increase by 2.1% vs. 2023. That’s 3.5 percentage points lower than the December 2023 forecast of 5.6% — a 62.5% decrease — and 1.2 points higher than the 0.9-point year-over-year increase reported for 2023.

More granularly among manufacturing respondents:

  • 44% indicated that 2024 revenues will increase an average of 8.6% vs. 2023
  • 14% indicated that revenues will decrease, and by an average of 12.3%
  • 42% indicated no change for 2024 revenues

The sentiment in ISM’s survey mirrored that of the latest monthly MDM Forecast (Premium), in which all but two of the 19 wholesale distribution sectors MDM tracks moved more pessimistic months-month in our May forecast for 2024 revenue growth.

Twelve of 18 manufacturing industries reported projected revenue increases for the rest of 2024 in ISM’s report, listed in order: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Textile Mills; Furniture & Related Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Paper Products.

Among services executives, respondents collectively expect a 2.9% increase in 2024 revenues — 4 percentage points lower than the 6.9% increase forecasted in December 2023.

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