Today, the Conference Board Employment Trends Index was reported to have continued its decline in September, suggesting at least by this measure that the latest spate of job losses may not the last. The index fell in September to 108.4, down 0.8% from the August revised figure of 109.3, and down almost 10% from a year ago.
The 14-month fall in the Employment Trends Index was seen in all eight of its components, most notably over the past six months in temporary-help hires and part-time workers for economic reasons.
The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight labor-market indicators:
- Percentage of respondents who say they find Jobs Hard to Get” (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey)
- Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
- Percentage of Firms with One or More Jobs Open (National Federation of Independent Business)
- Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
- Part-time Workers for Economic Reasons (BLS)
- Job Openings (BLS)
- Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)
- Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)
Separately, in a survey of economists released this week, two out of three believe we are in a recession. In this MarketWatch article on the results, respondents expect no economic growth in the fourth quarter, with a 1% increase in the first quarter of 2009. The survey projects growth of 2.7% in the second quarter, though unemployment is projected to rise to 6.4%.
In the article, the president-elect of the group says: “If financial conditions fail to improve quickly, near-term economic prospects could deteriorate markedly.” Still, lower oil prices, a bottoming out of home prices and better financial market conditions should buoy the economy in the first half of 2009.
Though the results were just released, the survey was conducted Sept. 8 through 19, so does not reflect some of the current economic turmoil nor the potential positive effects of the recently passed bailout plan.
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