The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. declined 0.1 percent in August, following a 0.5 percent increase in July, and a 0.5 percent decline in June. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) increased 0.1 percent, and the Lagging Economic Index (LAG) increased 0.2 percent.

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“The U.S. LEI has declined in three of the last six months. While its six-month growth rate has slowed substantially, it still remains in growth territory due to positive contributions from the financial components including stock prices, yield spread and the Leading Credit Index,” says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board.

“Over the last several months, the U.S. LEI seems to be fluctuating around a flat trend, while strengths and weaknesses among its components remain balanced. Meanwhile, the coincident economic index, a measure of current economic activity, edged up in August. The strengths among the coincident indicators have become less widespread, with three out of four components advancing over the past six months.”

The LEI for the U.S. now stands at 95.7 (2004 = 100). In the six-month period ending August 2012, the leading economic index increased 0.3 percent (about a 0.6 percent annual rate), much slower than the growth of 1.8 percent (about a 3.7 percent annual rate) during the previous six months. In addition, the strengths and weaknesses among the leading indicators have become balanced in recent months.

The Coincident Economic Index – a measure of current economic activity –now stands at 104.7 (2004 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in July, and a 0.2 percent decline in June. The index rose 0.7 percent (about a 1.4 percent annual rate) between February 2012 and August 2012, much slower than the growth of 1.8 percent (about a 3.6 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. The strengths among the coincident indicators have become less widespread, with three out of four components advancing over the past six months.

The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. has been essentially unchanged since March of this year, while The Conference Board CEI has been rising slowly. As a result, the six-month growth rate for both indexes has slowed sharply. The lagging economic index now stands at 116.5 (2004 = 100).

Real GDP expanded at a 1.7 percent annual rate in the second quarter of the year, after increasing at a 2.0 percent annual rate in the first quarter.

“The economy continues to be buffeted by strong headwinds domestically and internationally,” says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board. “As a result, the pace of growth is unlikely to change much in the coming months. Weak domestic demand continues to be a major drag on the economy.”