The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.4 percent in March, following a 1 percent increase in February, and a 0.2 percent increase in January. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) increased 0.2 percent, and the Lagging Economic Index (LAG) increased 0.4 percent.

The LEI continues to be at an all-time historical high while the CEI is still about 4.3 percent below its level at the beginning of the most recent recession.
 

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“The U.S. LEI continues to point to sustained economic growth through year end. Global disruptions, including unrest in the Middle East, rising oil prices and the Japan earthquake, may have some repercussions," says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board. "However, it remains to be seen what the impact of these shocks will be on the United States and the broader global economy.”

The LEI for the U.S. now stands at 114.1 (2004=100). The interest rate spread, building permits, and supplier deliveries made large positive contributions to the index, more than offsetting the sharp decline in consumer expectations. The six-month change in the index stands at 3.8 percent (a 7.8 percent annual rate), up from 1.2 percent (a 2.4 percent annual rate) for the previous six months.

The CEI for the U.S., a measure of current economic activity, increased to 102.9 (2004=100) in March. The index rose 1.5 percent (a 3.0 percent annual rate) between September 2010 and March 2011, modestly faster than the growth of 1.1 percent (a 2.2 percent annual rate) for the previous six months.

The LAG increased to 108.3 (2004=100) in March, following a 0.3 percent increase in February, and a 0.4 percent decrease in January. The lagging economic index increased more than the CEI, and the coincident-to-lagging ratio fell, as a result. Taken together, the current behavior of the composite indexes and their components suggest that economic activity should continue to expand moderately in the near term.

Real GDP expanded at a 3.1 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2010, after growing 2.6 percent (annual rate) in the third quarter.