The 2020 Mid-Year Economic Update_long

New Employment Projections Tell Just Part of the Story

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its employment projections through 2016 this week, and it doesn't look great for manufacturing.
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Within the goods-producing sector, construction is the only sector projected to grow.&nbsp ; Employment in manufacturing is forecast by BLS to decline by 1.5 million jobs. This decline is half of the 3 million manufacturing jobs lost in the previous decade (1996-2006). Employment in goods-producing industries is expected to decrease from 14.9% to 13.1% of total employment.
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Four of the 10 detailed industries with the largest projected wage and salary employment declines are in the manufacturing sector, including printing and related support activities and motor vehicle parts manufacturing.
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That said, we at MDM ...

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its employment projections through 2016 this week, and it doesn’t look great for manufacturing.
&nbsp ;
Within the goods-producing sector, construction is the only sector projected to grow.&nbsp ; Employment in manufacturing is forecast by BLS to decline by 1.5 million jobs. This decline is half of the 3 million manufacturing jobs lost in the previous decade (1996-2006). Employment in goods-producing industries is expected to decrease from 14.9% to 13.1% of total employment.
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Four of the 10 detailed industries with the largest projected wage and salary employment declines are in the manufacturing sector, including printing and related support activities and motor vehicle parts manufacturing.
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That said, we at MDM think that these numbers just tell half the story. A shift has been made away from large-scale mass production to assembly in this country, and productivity through technology has continued to improve, meaning manufacturers can do more with less. Not only are they more productive, manufacturers are running leaner these days. Many are outsourcing job functions to their suppliers that used to be done in-house. What’s more, many distributors have found new markets with smaller niche suppliers since the darker days of 2001-2002.
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These fundamental shifts are not reflected in the BLS numbers.
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In other words, even if the numbers are right, opportunities will continue to present themselves to wholesaler-distributors.
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On the Wholesale Trade side, employment is projected to have an average annual rate of increase of 0.7% in the next decade, or an increase of 429,000 jobs, about the same as the rate of increase from 1996-2006.
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Service-providing industries will generate almost all of the employment gains from 2006-2016, the BLS says, and will make up more than three-fourths of jobs in 2016. Professional and business services and health care and social assistance, the industry sectors with the largest employment growth, will add 8.1 million jobs, more than half of the projected increase in total employment.&nbsp ;
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Over the 2006-16 decade, total employment is projected to increase by 15.6 million jobs, or 10%, slightly less than the 15.9 million jobs, or 12 percent, during the 1996-2006 decade. The labor force filling these jobs is projected to grow more slowly than in the past due to the aging and retiring of baby boomers. As a result, the need to replace workers who retire or leave the labor force for other reasons is projected to create a significant number of additional job openings.
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Here are the links to the relevant BLS charts:
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Largest Wage and Salary Declines
30 Fastest-Growing Occupations
Largest Wage and Salary Growth
Employment by Major Occupational Group
Employment by Major Industry Sector, 1996, 2006, 2016
30 Occupations with the Largest Employment Declines, 2006-2016
Top 30 Occupations with the Largest Number of Total Job Openings Due to Growth and Net Replacements, 2006-2016

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