Despite the bumpy conditions we’re seeing in today’s markets, participants at the Chicago Fed’s annual Automotive Outlook Symposium expect U.S. economic growth to be solid for the remainder of this year and to strengthen somewhat in 2014.
According to the summary of the event, the manufacturing sector was leading the economic recovery after the recession until early in 2012. But from May 2012 to May 2013, manufacturing output expanded at an annualized rate of 2.2 percent, nearly a percentage point lower than its historical growth rate.
Housing was the weakest link in the recovery, according to the Chicago Fed, but it is improving, growing by 28 percent from 2011 to 2012. The sector continues to improve. That said, residential investment has contributed “very little to the growth of the overall economy,” the Chicago Fed reports.
Here’s an overview of key forecast figures from the Chicago Fed report:
- Real GDP will grow 2.3 percent in 2013 and 2.9 percent in 2014.
- Unemployment rate will edge lower through the end of 2014 to 7.3 percent and then 6.9 percent in the final quarter of 2014.
- Inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index, will stay fairly even, with 1.8 percent gain in 2013 and 2 percent in 2014.
- Light vehicle sales will rise to 15.3 million units this year and then grow to 15.8 million in 2014.
- Real business fixed investment is predicted to grow 3.5 percent in2 013 and 4.6 percent in 2014.
- Industrial production is forecast to grow at a rate of 3.2 percent in 2013 and 2.9 percent in 2014, close to its historical growth rate.
- And the housing sector is forecast to grow, with real residential investment expanding at a rate of 13.9 percent in 2013 and 15.1 percent in 2014.
For more details on economic trends in distribution, including information on specific sectors as well as a macroeconomic update, access the recent MDM Webcast 2013 Mid-Year Economic Update on-demand or order a webcast DVD.
