3rd Estimate: 1Q U.S. GDP Fell Much More than Previously Reported - Modern Distribution Management

3rd Estimate: 1Q U.S. GDP Fell Much More than Previously Reported

January-March U.S. economic growth contracted more than double than what the previous estimate showed, as rising imports and reduced government spending weighed on output.
Real GDP 4Q 2020

U.S. economic growth remained in contraction territory during 2025’s first quarter, and by a considerably larger decline than previous estimates, according to data released June 26 by the Commerce Department.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis’ third estimate report showed that U.S. gross domestic product decreased at an annual rate of 0.5% in January-March, following an initial estimate of down 0.3%, and a second estimate of down 0.2%. It followed healthy 2.4% growth in 4Q24.

GDP was revised down 0.3 percentage points from the second estimate, which reflects downward revisions to consumer spending and exports. However, that was partially offset by a downward revision to imports.

Real GDP, Percent Change from Preceding Quarter

The GDP decrease was driven by a surge in imports — which detract from economic growth — and a decline in government spending. Meanwhile, those factors were partially offset by increases in investments and consumer spending.

In the Store: MDM’s U.S. MRO Market Trends Report 

The decrease in real GPD in the first quarter primarily reflected an increase in imports, a deceleration in consumer spending and a decline in government spending. These movements were partially offset by an increase in investments.

Contributions to Percent Change in Real GDP, 1st Quarter 2025 Real GDP

According to the Associated Press, economists expected no change in The Commerce Department’s third and final estimate, wherein the department had previously estimated that GDP would decline 0.2% in the first quarter.

The 2Q GDP first estimate will be released in a report issued on July 30.

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