The 2020 Mid-Year Economic Update_long

Canadian Industrial Product Price Index Down 0.9% in April

Raw Materials Price Index rose 3.8 percent, largely due to higher prices for crude energy products.

The Canadian Industrial Product Price Index declined 0.9 percent in April, mainly because of lower prices for energy and petroleum products. The Raw Materials Price Index increased 3.8 percent in April, largely as a result of higher prices for crude energy products. The decrease in IPPI in April (-0.9 percent) followed a 0.2 percent March gain. Of the 21 commodity groups, 17 were down, 2 were up and 2 were unchanged.

The main reason for the decline in April was lower prices for energy and petroleum products (-3.2 percent). The decline was led by lower prices for diesel fuel (-8.7 percent) and light fuel oils (-5.6 percent), while motor gasoline edged down 0.6 percent. Both motor gasoline and diesel fuel are commonly used as transportation fuels; however, prices for diesel fuel may vary as it is also used as a heating fuel. The demand for diesel fuel typically declines outside winter months, which can put downward pressure on prices. The IPPI excluding energy and petroleum products declined 0.6 percent. This was the first decrease in the IPPI excluding energy and petroleum products since May 2014.

Motorized and recreational vehicles (-1.5 percent) also contributed to the decline in the IPPI. Lower prices for passenger cars and light trucks (-1.5 percent) were the main reason for the decrease and, to a lesser extent, lower prices for motor vehicle engines and motor vehicle parts (-1.2 percent) as well as aircraft (-2.3 percent). Lower prices for motorized and recreational vehicles were closely linked to the appreciation of the Canadian dollar relative to the US dollar.

Both primary non-ferrous metal products (-0.8 percent) and primary ferrous metal products (-1.4 percent) declined in April.

Lower prices for unwrought precious metals and precious metal alloys (-0.7 percent), and other unwrought non-ferrous metals and non-ferrous metal alloys (-2.2 percent) were the main reasons for the decline in primary non-ferrous metal products. Lower prices for basic and semi-finished iron and steel products (-1.4 percent) led the decline in primary ferrous metal products.

To a lesser extent, lower prices for fruit, vegetables, feed and other food products (-0.6 percent) also contributed to the decline in theIPPI. The decrease was led by lower prices for flour and other grain mill products (-3.2 percent), grain and oilseed products, not elsewhere classified (-0.8 percent) as well as other animal feed (-1.3 percent).

Some IPPI prices are reported in US dollars and are converted to Canadian dollars using the average monthly exchange rate. Consequently, any change in the value of the Canadian dollar relative to the US dollar will affect the level of the index. From March to April 2015, the Canadian dollar appreciated 2.3 percent relative to the US dollar. This was the first appreciation of the Canadian dollar since July 2014. If the exchange rate had remained constant, the IPPI would have declined 0.4 percent instead of decreasing 0.9 percent.

The IPPI decreased 2.4 percent over the 12-month period ending in April, after decreasing 1.8 percent in March.

Compared with April 2014, the decline in the IPPI was largely a result of lower prices for energy and petroleum products (-25.8 percent). Motor gasoline (-27.1 percent) and, to a lesser extent, diesel fuel (-28.7 percent) as well as light fuel oils (-23.1 percent), were the primary reasons for the decline in this commodity group. Excluding energy and petroleum products, the IPPI increased 2.4 percent over the last 12 months.

Also contributing to the decline were lower prices for chemicals and chemical products (-6.5 percent). The decrease in this commodity group was led by aromatic hydrocarbon gases (-31.9 percent), as well as liquefied refinery gases, and acyclic hydrocarbons not elsewhere classified (-29.8 percent).

The year-over-year decline in the IPPI was moderated by a gain in motorized and recreational vehicles (+8.7 percent). The increase was mainly due to higher prices for passenger cars and light trucks (+9.2 percent) and, to a lesser extent, motor vehicle engines and motor vehicle parts (+6.2 percent) and aircraft (+13.7 percent).

Also moderating the year-over-year decline in the IPPI were higher prices for primary non-ferrous metal products (+3.3 percent), specifically, aluminum and aluminum-alloy basic and semi-finished products (+15.8 percent) and unwrought aluminum and aluminum alloys (+9 percent).

Raw Materials Price Index

The RMPI rose 3.8 percent in April following a 1.5 percent decline in March. Of the six commodity groups, two were up, three were down and one was unchanged. The gain in the RMPI was largely a result of higher prices for crude energy products (+9.9 percent), specifically conventional crude oil (+10.3 percent). The RMPI excluding crude energy products declined 0.3 percent.

Lower prices for crop products (-1.5 percent) moderated the increase, mainly other crop products (-1.9 percent) and, to a lesser extent, wheat (-2.2 percent).

Metal ores, concentrates and scrap was unchanged in April despite a 12.4 percent decline in prices for iron ores and concentrates. Prices for iron ores and concentrates have generally declined for over a year and have fallen 55.7 percent since December 2013.

The RMPI fell 20.9 percent in the 12-month period ending in April, following a 23.7 percent decline in March.

The decrease was largely attributable to crude energy products (-36.7 percent), specifically conventional crude oil (-37.4 percent). The RMPIexcluding crude energy products declined 2.8 percent from the same period last year.

Also contributing to the decline, but to a much lesser extent, was metal ores, concentrates and scrap (-3.1 percent).

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