The 2020 Mid-Year Economic Update_long

Chicago Fed National Activity Index Rises to +4.11 in June

Latest CFNAI shows that three of four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in June, and two of the four categories increased from May.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index

Led by improvements in production- and employment-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +4.11 in June from +3.50 in May. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in June, and two of the four categories increased from May. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved up to –3.49 in May from –6.36 in April.

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, moved up to a neutral value in June from –0.45 in May. Fifty-four of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in June, while 31 made negative contributions. Fifty-one indicators improved from May to June, while 34 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, 14 made negative contributions.

Production-related indicators contributed +2.22 to the CFNAI in June, up from +0.84 in May. Industrial production rose 5.4 percent in June after increasing 1.4 percent in May. The contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to the CFNAI moved down to –0.24 in June from +0.04 in May.

Employment-related indicators contributed +1.74 to the CFNAI in June, up slightly from +1.73 in May. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 4.8 million in June after increasing by 2.7 million in May, and initial unemployment insurance claims declined by 849,000 in June after falling by 2.2 million in the previous month. The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI decreased to +0.40 in June from +0.89 in May.

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