The 2020 Mid-Year Economic Update_long

Chicago Fed National Activity Index Falls to -1.09 in February

Latest Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) shows that two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in February, and all four decreased from January.
CFNAI Februar 2021

Led by declines in indicators related to production and personal consumption and housing, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to –1.09 in February from +0.75 in January. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in February, but all four categories decreased from January. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.02 in February from +0.46 in January.

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, moved down to +0.17 in February from +0.34 in January. Thirty-four of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in February, while 51 made negative contributions. Thirty indicators improved from January to February, while 55 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, eight made negative contributions.

Production-related indicators contributed –0.85 to the CFNAI in February, down from +0.37 in January. Adverse weather played a part in industrial production declining 2.2 percent in February, after rising 1.1 percent in January. The contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to the CFNAI edged down to +0.03 in February from +0.06 in January.

The personal consumption and housing category contributed –0.29 to the CFNAI in February, down from +0.27 in January. The indicators in this category broadly deteriorated from January. The contribution of the employment, unemployment, and hours category to the CFNAI edged down +0.02 in February from +0.04 in January. Notably, payrolls in construction and average weekly hours worked in manufacturing declined in February.

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