The 2020 Mid-Year Economic Update_long

Consumer Confidence Index Falls in June

Conference Board report shows declining optimism, as economic growth continues but momentum slows.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index decreased in June, following an increase in May. The Index stands at 126.4, down from 128.8 in May. The Present Situation Index was relatively flat, 161.1 versus 161.2 last month, while the Expectations Index declined from 107.2 last month to 103.2 this month, the researcher said.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was June 15.

Consumers’ assessment of present-day conditions was relatively unchanged during the month, suggesting economic growth remains strong, according to Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at The Conference Board. She added that a modest curtailment in optimism “suggests that consumers do not foresee the economy gaining much momentum in the months ahead.”

The group reported the following results for June:

  • Consumers’ appraisal of current conditions was relatively unchanged in June. The percentage stating business conditions are “good” decreased from 38.6 percent to 36 percent, while those saying business conditions are “bad” also decreased, from 12.6 percent to 11.7 percent. Consumers’ assessment of the labor market was also mixed. The percentage of consumers claiming jobs are “plentiful” decreased from 42.1 percent to 40 percent, but those claiming jobs are “hard to get” also decreased, from 15.6 percent to 14.9 percent.

  • Consumers’ optimism about the short-term outlook eased in June. The percentage of consumers anticipating business conditions will improve over the next six months decreased from 23.3 percent to 21.4 percent, while those expecting business conditions will worsen rose from 7.8 percent to 9.8 percent. Consumers’ outlook for the labor market, however, was slightly more favorable. The proportion expecting more jobs in the months ahead increased marginally, from 19.7 percent to 20 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs decreased, from 13.1 percent to 12.6 percent. Regarding their short-term income prospects, the percentage of consumers expecting an improvement declined, from 21.4 percent to 18.8 percent, while the proportion expecting a decrease rose from 8 percent to 8.7 percent.

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